El-Sisi says he leaves in 2030 🇪🇬

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El-Sisi used a military graduation on Saturday to say that his presidency ends in 2030, that the constitution will not be touched, and that the question is now closed. He also set out a thirty-month course to train the people who might replace him.

In the same speech he asked parliament to authorise Egyptian forces to help defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh asks. The House was due to sit on Sunday to consider that, so it may have voted by the time this reaches you. And Moody’s upgraded Egypt’s credit rating.

Let’s get into it.

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• El-Sisi says his presidency ends in 2030 🇪🇬

• Egypt may be asked to defend Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦

• Moody’s upgrades Egypt, S&P holds steady 📈

THE PRESIDENCY | 2030 | SUCCESSION
EL-SISI SAYS HIS PRESIDENCY ENDS IN 2030

Speaking at a Military Academy graduation in the New Administrative Capital on Saturday, El-Sisi said his term as president ends in 2030, that the constitution will not be amended, and that the matter is closed. “In 2030, my term leading the country will end, if I am still alive,” he said, and: “This matter is completely settled and will not be discussed further.” He said he was announcing it more than 40 months early to stop the speculation.

What he was answering: A campaign for a fourth term had been building through loyal politicians and government-aligned social media accounts, including an online petition urging him to stay until 2050 that drew widespread backlash. On Wednesday, at the Armed Forces’ 44th cultural symposium marking the October war anniversary, he had already said that no one would be allowed to tamper with the constitution. He also used that speech to warn against a repeat of 2011, telling the audience: “Fortify your country against this conspiracy, I am not saying fortify the president.”

The academy he wants built: A course of up to 30 months and more than 7,500 hours, for doctorate holders aged 40 to 50 from reputable Egyptian or foreign universities, entered by examination. Anyone who has served six years or more in government is exempt. He floated an intake of anywhere between 200 and 1,000, and said it would prepare people for ministries, governorates and parliament as well as the presidency. The armed forces would pay for it, he said, “whatever they might be,” and a law would be drafted to govern selection by a committee under the Speaker of the House, Hisham Badawy, working with the ministers of higher education and justice and a group of intellectuals and politicians.

He pre-empted the obvious question: “No one should engage in political one-upmanship and say that I am preparing someone from my relatives or family,” he said. He also said Egypt “is not incapable of producing people a hundred times better than me,” that “we cannot bring someone in to experiment and learn on the job, even in ministries,” and that the selection criteria “must be fair and impartial.”

SAUDI ARABIA | THE HOUTHIS | PARLIAMENT
EL-SISI ASKS PARLIAMENT TO AUTHORIZE DEFENDING SAUDI

At the same ceremony on Saturday, El-Sisi said Egypt would act to protect Saudi Arabia if Riyadh asked it to, and called on parliament to meet urgently to authorise him. “I call on Parliament to hold an emergency session to authorize this action if we are asked to do so,” he said, adding: “We do not want to fight or attack anyone. We will only defend Saudi Arabia.” Two conditions remain unmet. Riyadh has made no public request, and parliament has not voted.

Why Egypt is being asked at all: King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh has been struck four times in five days and, by one count, twenty times since the month began. The strike of Saturday 10 October killed thirteen people, among them the Egyptian flight attendant Azza Ramzy. Houthi attacks have also hit the airports at Abha, Jazan, Najran and Dammam, and Saudi Aramco’s head office in Dhahran. Brent crude touched USD 110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May. Egypt’s stake is direct: the same shipping it needs through Suez, and an energy import bill that rises with every escalation.

He had been building to it all week: On Thursday he said threats to Saudi Arabia affect Egyptian national security, and by Friday that had hardened into a flat statement that Egypt will not accept them. At the graduation he thanked Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait for the oil, gas, butane and wheat that arrived after 2011 “without limit,” asked the armed forces to give the three a military salute, and warned Egyptians against disparaging Gulf countries online: “I will not shy away or feel embarrassed about expressing thanks and appreciation to our brothers in the Gulf.”

Egypt would be joining something already moving: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye signed the Mecca Alliance for Defence in August, and this month the three agreed to activate deterrence measures and deploy forces quickly against Houthi attacks. Donald Trump has said he is weighing whether US forces should join the Saudi-backed strikes. Egypt arriving now would be the largest Arab army in the region attaching itself to a coalition that is already in motion.

RATINGS | DEBT | REFORM
MOODY’S UPGRADES EGYPT, S&P HOLDS STEADY

Moody’s raised Egypt’s long-term sovereign rating to B3 on Saturday, in both local and foreign currency, and kept a positive outlook. S&P had affirmed Egypt at B/B with a stable outlook a week earlier. Two agencies looked at the same country in the same week and both came away more comfortable than before.

Moody’s reasoning, as the government relayed it: Fiscal consolidation and structural reform have put government debt and interest payments on a downward path, while better revenue collection, tighter spending, a flexible exchange rate and tighter monetary policy have built up reserves and the capacity to absorb a shock. The positive outlook is there because continued discipline could cut debt and debt-servicing costs faster than Moody’s currently expects. The figures cited: government debt at 81.9 percent of GDP in June, reserves above USD 57 billion in September, and tax revenues at 13 percent of GDP, up 1.6 percentage points in two years.

What S&P put on the record: The budget deficit narrowed to 5.8 percent of GDP in the last fiscal year with a primary surplus of 4.9 percent. Government debt is forecast to fall to 87 percent of GDP by next June, down from a peak of 94 percent in 2023. Suez Canal revenue came to USD 3.4 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year, against USD 2.8 billion a year earlier, still well below pre-2023 levels. Foreign holdings of local-currency government debt had recovered to USD 34.5 billion by September from USD 22.2 billion in April, though they remain below February’s peak.

The number that frames both: Interest payments are projected to take about 60 percent of government revenue this fiscal year. That is down from 68 percent last year and is forecast to reach 53 percent the year after, which is the improvement the agencies are rewarding. It also means Egypt still spends close to three-fifths of everything it collects on servicing what it owes. Both of those things are true at once, and an upgrade to B3 is a better position in a range that remains deep in speculative territory.

And the date nobody has moved: The USD 8 billion IMF arrangement ends in December, with a final tranche of about USD 1.7 billion expected, and S&P does not expect a new programme after it. Whatever replaces that external anchor has not been announced. The cabinet presents its National Economic Transformation Programme at Egypt Forum 2026 this week, which is the obvious place to look for an answer.